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In the context of the United Kingdom Government’s renewed resolve to tackle climate change on home ground and to secure international agreement on action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, it is instructive to look again at the report produced last year on flood risk in the growth areas of England by the Association of British Insurers. That report recalled the climate change scenarios generated by the Foresight project team three or four years ago and summarised as follows: Nearly two million properties in floodplains along rivers, estuaries and coasts in the U.K. are potentially at risk of river or coastal flooding - Around 80,000 properties are at risk in towns and cities from ‘intra-urban’ flooding
- In England and Wales alone, over four million people and properties valued at over £200 billion are at risk
- The cost of flooding and managing flood risk in the U.K. is around £2.2 billion each year. This equates to £800 million per annum spending on flood and coastal defences; and even with the present flood defences, an average of £1,400 million of flood damage.
When the Foresight inquiry estimated the current annual average damage from flooding across the whole of the United Kingdom as equivalent to between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent of gross domestic product, it predicted that this rate of loss could rise fourfold or more by 2080 if flood management policies and expenditure remained unchanged. At that time for example the ruling planning policy guidance did not directly deter local authorities from granting planning permission for development in the flood plains. But even if expenditure on flood defences and drainage capacity in the United Kingdom remains broadly the same as a proportion of GDP, flood management policies are changing. The Government is currently responding among other things to the ABI findings showing that implementing the relevant planning policy guidance PPG25 in new housing developments in the Thames Gateway could reduce potential flood risk by over half, and in the other growth areas by 96 per cent. This PPG, as Dr. James Lancaster, Arup’s senior hydrologist pointed out at the BRE Watertight conference, makes those proposing development responsible for providing an assessment of whether it is likely to be affected by flooding and whether it would effect flood risk elsewhere. Consultation on planning policy However, the whole issue of planning policy for development and flood risk has recently been out for consultation and the responses are now being assessed. In this process, says ODPM, the aim has been to focus on national policy and to provide clarity on what is required at regional and local levels to ensure that decisions are made at the most appropriate level and in timely fashion. In that connection, the Environment Agency which has overall responsibility for managing flood risk has complained that last year as many as 21 major developments were granted planning permission by local authorities contrary to its advice. This, said its chief executive Baroness Young, reinforces the need for national government scrutiny of such cases. The consultation, whose outcome is due to be made known in the next few months, provides for strengthening of environmental control through a standing flood direction. This will require that any local planning authority minded to approve an application for development against sustained objections from the Environment Agency must refer it to the regional government office to determine whether or not the application should go to ODPM for decision. The agency’s consultee role is also being extended in relation to flood risk on certain types of development, particularly those in close proximity to main rivers. The new planning policy statement (PPS25) will reflect the general direction set out in the Making Space for Water programme, part of the five-year strategy produced by the Department of the Environment (Defra) under the banner Delivering the essentials of life. This is intended to shape flood and coastal erosion risk management policy over the next 10-20 years. For this, as Martin Roberts, Defra’s Making Space for Water programme manager explained at the BRE Watertight conference, the principal policy drivers are climate change including the prospective sea level rise and the growing demand for sustainable development. The Foresight future flooding report cited in the ABI document continues to exercise strong influence on the development of policy. There is also a growing body of experience from recent flooding events in the United Kingdom such as occurred at Bocastle and Carlisle, and the devastating toll of death, injury and damage at New Orleans. Housing vulnerable to storm surges These impending shifts in policy must of course have a direct influence on growth areas such as Thames Gateway where as the Entec study for ABI found many of the 120,000 houses to be built there will be potentially vulnerable to a large-scale storm surge event. This seems more than ever likely if climate change takes hold to the extent being feared. As the ABI report described the situation, the effects of climate change mean that London and the Thames Estuary will be at greater risk from flooding in future years. “Furthermore, many flood risk areas are undergoing development and regeneration, meaning that more people, buildings and infrastructure are likely to be exposed to the risk of flooding in the future. “Although London’s existing tidal defences offer a high level of protection from today’s flood risks, they were only designed to provide protection up until 2030. While slight modifications to these defences could extend their useful life by a few more years, the need for a long-term strategic look at London’s flood defences is becoming increasingly apparent.” This long-term strategic appraisal is in hand as the Environment Agency’s response to the London Assembly report confirmed. Rising concern about the effects of climate change does however show that avoidance of flooding risks as far as possible and provision of adequate defences where not is bound to be an increasingly demanding area of the national infrastructure. It will require works as well as strategies to keep Londoner’s heads above water if the forecasts of rising sea levels are anything like accurate. http://www.ciobinternational.org/openArticle.asp?ArticleID=4899 |
